January 26, 2013

Making A Weather Forecast

One of the first things that we as meteorologists do when we start our job each morning is take a look at the overall pattern first. This means pulling up a satellite image and putting it in motion to see what is happening with all of our clouds and pressure systems. We use the satellite to get a sense of how fast the weather systems are moving and where they are moving.

The next process that I use is to pull up the latest surface analysis, which shows me where the high and low pressures are and how strong the systems are. This allows us meteorologists to get an idea of what type of system we are looking at such as a weaker but faster moving weather system  or a stronger and slower moving weather system, as this can be the make or break of a weather forecast if we can’t pinpoint the speed and direction along with strength of the system.

Upon completing those task, I then go forward to the Weather Models and scan over them however one thing you will hear from other forecasters that I personally don’t do is they use a blend of models for forecasting. I personally use the GFS weather model as my guidance. The reason I don’t look at more than one model is that it tends to get you starting a washy approach to the weather because you may see several different tracks being represented. So I have created a log book on my desk and I take note of the GFS strengthens and weakness. This is my personal approach to the weather model situation.

From there I then approach the local area and look at the conditions around where I will be forecasting then start applying them to all the above steps that I mentioned earlier. This leads me to a blend of information and then it’s time to do the final step, which is to apply Weather Dynamics to my thought process. Using weather dynamics to the thought process allows me to know the rules of what weather does under certain conditions.

The last thing then is to now create my forecast, based on all the information that I have gathered through my first 30 minutes of daily weather research.  This allows me to personally put out a stronger weather forecast for all my followers here on redOrbit.com.

Now, if I am doing a long term weather forecast or maybe an outlook for over one month like you have seen some of my seasonal outlooks for that approach I look at my newly developed Climo Dome model to help along with pattern trends about half way around the globe to come up with a mix blend approach to my long term forecasting and outlooks. Again this allows me a more solid approach to my outlooks that I do.

Image Credit: Photos.com

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