December 25, 2012

The Storm Report Blog For Dec 25, 2012

Discussion: Over the past 24hrs we have been watching here at the Storm Center the development of a very deep intense upper level trough which is moving out of the Rockies and towards the Southern Plains, this is going to interact with a stationary boundary that is over the Northern Gulf Coast right now. The satellite image on the left we are looking at the area identified with a red circle as the location of our newly developing low pressure center.  This will then pull the stationary front into a new cold front along with a new warm front. Once the warm front begins to move northward back over the Gulf Coast we will start to see the stages set for a significant severe weather outbreak right behind the warm front and ahead of the newly formed cold front.

Looking at the map on the right this is the projected path of our low pressure over the next 24-36hrs which moves it up towards the Northeast near the Ohio River valley by the 27th. The area outlined in red is going to be the area of greatest concern for severe weather as the SPC out of Norman Oklahoma has put the region in a 30-45% chance of seeing a significant outbreak of severe weather over Christmas Day and into the 26th. The region in green is going to be dealing with the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms some places here may see upwards to 1-3in of rainfall with localized higher amounts. On the backside of the low’s track or the Northwest side of the low we will be dealing with a significant winter storm also with some places in Arkansas and Oklahoma along with Missouri having the chance to get over 8inches of snowfall on Christmas day living the dream of a “White Christmas” especially for these regions.

Looking at the potential impacts of this storm for certain cities and how they will be impacted.

Dallas, Texas: (Winter Weather possible with a light snow accumulation)(Rainfall amounts near 1.0in for the region)(Windy conditions the winds will shift to the Northwest around 20-30mph)(Temps will fall to the 20-30F range behind the front).

Little Rock, Arkansas: (Winter Weather likely with snowfall amounts around 3-5in)(Rainfall near 0.5in before the snow hits)(Winds will be out of the Northwest around 25-35mph)(Temps will fall into the 20’s overnight).

Jackson Mississippi: (Winter weather very low)(Rainfall amounts very high with totals near 3inches possible)(Winds will be mostly Southwest around 15-25mph)(Temps will start in the 60’s and fall to the 40’s behind the front).

Gulfport, Mississippi: (Severe Weather Urgent with the potential of seeing Tornadoes)(Rainfall around 1-2in possible)(Winds from the Southwest around 20-30mph likely)(Temps will be in the 70’s before the front and then drop into the lower 40’s overnight behind the front).

New Orleans, Louisiana: (Severe weather moderate chance with damaging winds likely)(Rainfall around 1-2in possible)(Winds from the Southwest 15-20mph)(Temps starting in the mid 70’s and falling to the upper 40’s behind the front).

Mobile, Alabama: (Severe weather Urgent with the potential of seeing tornadoes high)(Rainfall in the 1-2in possibility)(Winds from the Southwest around 20-25mph)(Temps will start in the lower 70’s and fall to the lower 40’s behind the front).

Pensacola, Florida: (Severe weather moderate chance with damaging winds likely)(Rainfall around 1inch)(Winds from the Southeast around 15-20mph)(Temps in the lower 70’s falling to the upper 40’s behind the front).

Memphis, Tennessee: (Winter Weather low with the chance of seeing up to 1inch of snowfall towards the evening hours, with a high likelihood of dealing with a winter mix of rain and snow along with some sleet)(Rainfall amounts near 1inch likely)(Winds from the Northeast shifting to the Northwest around 20-25mph)(Temps starting in the 40’s and possibly falling to the upper 20’s behind the storm).

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: (Winter weather high with the chance of seeing an accumulation pretty good and the further Northeast the higher the snow totals will be)(Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.5in)(Winds will be mostly Northwest around 20mph)(Temps will remain in the 20-30F range for  the entire storm).

Storm Summary: This storm is still moving out of the Rockies as of December 24th and still has the chance to alter its course a little bit, if this storm moves further south the snow storm will shift a tad bit further south as well, however if the storm moves a tad bit further north then the severe weather region will also push further north. As this being the holidays and many people going to be impacted by this storm its very important to keep the National Weather Service radio handy and also your phone make sure to have the latest weather warning apps for your region downloaded before you head out tomorrow.

Image Credit: Tony Campbell / Shutterstock

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