December 28, 2012

The Storm Report Blog For December 28, 2012

Left Map Analysis:  Looking at the latest satellite image we can see as of Dec 27, the low pressure was developing over the eastern portion of Colorado and the warm front is extending into the Northern Plains were they are seeing snow today along with blustery winds, this system will move towards the southeast over the next 24-36hrs bringing with it a wide array of weather to the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast region.

Right Map Analysis: The map on the right is our projected storm track of our low pressure system over the next 36hrs with it pushing into the Northern Gulf Coast by the evening of the 28th and first part of the 29th. The yellow line indicates the region that will see the heaviest rainfall and thunderstorms also mixing into the region possibility to see some strong storms, however the severe weather should be limited this time and total rainfall amounts could be near 1in or greater for some places. The region in the green is looking at mostly a rain event with rainfall amounts near 0.5inches. The regions in the pink shading are going to see a mix of rain and sleet mostly possibly some very light snow showers on the tail end of the storm system during the overnight hours but no significant snowfall accumulations expected in this region and rainfall could reach 0.25in along with the possibility of seen a trace of ice accumulation. The last region in blue is our snow forecast region this portion of the area will see snowfall mixing with the rain and then finishing with snow and snowfall accumulations could vary from a trace to 4inches in some places in Arkansas and the Western part of Tennessee.

Image Credit: Joshua Kelly

Looking at the potential impacts of this storm for certain cities and how they will be impacted. (These conditions are for Dec 28th and 29th).

Little Rock, AR: (There will be light snow to start with and the possibility of 1in early then mixing in with rainfall, before finishing the period with light snow again total accumulations around 1-3in is possible for this region/Winds will be Easterly to start with  then slowly shift to the Northwest after the front passes the area/Temps will begin in the 30’s and after the front passes drop into the 20’s).

New Orleans, LA: (The region will see showers to start with and then as the warm front approaches the possibility for a few thunderstorms mixing into the forecast as well, rainfall amounts near 0.75in are likely for this area/Temps will start the day in the 60’s and warm to the upper 60’s and then drop sharply to the 45-50F range behind the front /Winds will start out southeasterly and be gusty with wind gust as high as 25mph possible, behind the front they will shift to the Northwest around 15-20mph).

Biloxi, MS: (The region will start out with showers and then as the warm front approaches may see some thunderstorms also with total rainfall amounts near 1.0in likely/ Temps will begin in the mid 60’s and remain in the 60’s until the front passes, then they will drop into the 40’s and even some 30’s for places north of I-10/ Winds will start the day out of the Southeast around 15-25mph and then after the front passes they will shift to the Northwest around 15-20mph).

Mobile, AL: (The region will see showers and thunderstorms for the duration of the event with total accumulations of 0.75-1.25in possible in the region/ Winds will be Southeast around 15-25mph before the front and then after the front they will shift to the Northwest around 20mph with higher gust possible/Temps will be in the mid 60’s for most of the day and then after the front passes they will drop into the 30’s and 40’s for the region).

Jackson, MS: (The region will start out with showers and could be heavy at times also during the end of the event there could be some sleet during the overnight hours but majority will be rain and the total accumulations of 0.5in is likely for the region/Winds will be Easterly around 15-20mph and then after the front shifts look for them to become Northwest around 25mph/Temps will start in the mid 40’s to lower 50’s and then behind the front drop into the lower 30’s).

Memphis, TN: (The region will start with a rain/snow mix with little accumulation and then turn to rain during the day and remix with snow in the evening before turning all to snow and total rainfall accumulations will be around .35in while total snowfall accumulations  could be Trace-1inch/ Winds will be Northeast to start and then slowly shift to the southeast before going Northwest to finish behind the front with wind speeds around 15-25mph for the entire period/Temps will start in the 30’s warm to the 40’s and then behind the front fall back into the lower 30’s to upper 20’s).

Storm Summary: This storm is currently in the Rockies and is moving slowly towards the Southeast, there still is time for this low to shift its track northward or southward and if it transits further southward we could see more cold air into the region, where if it goes further north we could see less cold air and some places could see less snowfall and more rainfall. The storm once it gets into the Gulf will possibly deepen rapidly and become a strong system however indications are that we will not have a major severe weather outbreak like we did with the last system over the Christmas period.

Featured Image Credit: Mikael Damkier / Shutterstock

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