February 10, 2013

The Storm Report Blog For February 9-11, 2013

Left Map Analysis: Looking at the latest satellite image, we see the storm system beginning to develop over the Eastern portion of Colorado around the blue circle. This storm system will begin to make its way northeastward over the next couple of days.

Right Map Analysis: The dashed yellow line represents our forecasted track for the low pressure system once it moves out of the Rockies and on its northeastward track. The low should be over the Nebraska and Iowa border late Sunday night into early Monday morning. This is when we will be watching the storm gain strength. The northern side of the storm will be responsible for heavy snowfall along with significant blowing and drifting snows, creating blizzard conditions over the Plains by Sunday Night. While the Southern side of the storm will push eastward and set the stage for a potential severe weather outbreak over the Southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast during the day on Monday. The solid yellow line represents our forecasted area for thunderstorms, while the red outline inside is where we expect more in the way of possible severe weather to occur. The green line will be the general area that sees the rain showers and some slight mixing may occur towards the end of the storm. The pink region will be the area that starts as rain, but turns into a rain/snow mix; even some ice may accumulate in this region. The light blue outlines our forecasted snow region for this storm. Most places inside the yellow will see upwards to 6inches possible, while the areas inside the blue outline will be looking at the chance of 6-10inches, with some areas getting as much as 1ft. The purple outlined area inside the blue represents our forecasted region for the heaviest snowfall; some places inside here may be getting near 12-16 inches of snow when it’s all done.

Image Credit: Joshua Kelly

Looking at the potential impacts of this storm for certain cities and how they will be impacted. (These conditions are for February 9-11).

Winter Side of the Storm:

Denver CO: The snow will continue for a good portion of the day on Saturday before the storm system finally moves out of the area. The Northwesterly winds will be around 25-30mph behind the storm system. This will lead to colder temps and some blowing and drifting snow in the region. Total snowfall accumulations for the Metro area should remain around 6inches or less with the heavier snow setting up to the West of the area in the higher elevations.

Sioux Falls, SD: The region will start to see the precipitation move in during the evening hours on Saturday. It will likely start out as rain and then switch into a rain/snow mix, along with some freezing rain, before making the transition to all snow during the overnight hours. The Metro area will likely see around 3-5inches of snowfall. The winds will be a big concern as they will become northwesterly at 20-25mph with higher gust on the back side of the storm system creating blizzard like conditions for the area through the first part of Monday.

Milbank, SD: The storm system will begin to impact the region by late evening on Saturday and as it moves into the area it will be a big snow event for the region. This heavy snow will last through the entire day of Sunday and then part of the day on Monday before moving out of the region. Total snowfall amounts for the area will be around 10-14inches. The winds will also create significant blowing and drifting snow, leading to blizzard conditions for most of the day Sunday and early Monday before conditions get better.

Minneapolis, MN: The storm system will start to move into the region towards the overnight hours on Saturday and early Sunday morning. The majority of the storm may come as a rain and snow mix, with a small window of all snow towards the end of the storm. This is why the region may only see 2-4inches of snowfall. However, they will see some significant rains and freezing precipitation before the turnover to snow. The northwest winds will start to pick up on the back side of the storm and will lead to some blowing and drifting of the snow that does fall.

Severe Side of the Storm:

Dallas, TX: The storm will bring the chance for some strong to severe storms across the region on Saturday and Saturday night. It does not look like there will be much severe weather, although there will still be a chance for an isolated event to occur. The biggest influence will be the rainfall that impacts the region; there will be some places that could see upwards of two inches of rain before it is all done on Sunday morning. The winds will be strong ahead of the storm out of the Southeast around 20mph.

Biloxi, MS: The warm front will push through the region early on Sunday. Once this clears the area, look for conditions to become favorable for severe weather in the area. Right now, it looks like the best chance of seeing severe weather will be during the day on Monday. There will be a moderate chance of seeing straight line wind damage and even a slight chance of some tornadoes to move through the region. The biggest impact will come from the rainfall that is forecasted for the area. Total rainfall amounts for Biloxi could be around 2-4inches by the time the system moves through.

Memphis, TN: The storm system will approach the Memphis metro area by the evening on Saturday night, with most of the impacts being felt on Sunday and Monday. The region could see some severe weather; however, they may remain just far enough north to keep it limited. The big story will again be the heavy rain that impacts the area with total rainfall amounts around 1-3inches very likely by the time the storm system moves out.

Past 24hr Storm Summary: The storm pushed on shore over Southern California over the past day. Along the path, it did leave some moderate rains in Southern California, along with some heavier snows in the mountains. The storm also started pushing heavier snow bands into the Salt Lake City region and the southwest during the overnight hours. Places in Salt Lake City did see accumulating snows, while places in southwest Colorado got upwards to one foot or more.

24hr Storm Impacts: Over the next 24hrs, this storm will become a bigger system with larger impacts and a larger area being affected. Some of the impacts will include the heavier snows in the Colorado Rockies, along with the rains over southern Texas and Oklahoma. The storm will slowly push northeastward during the same time period. At the end of the 24hr outlook, the storms center should be moving through Nebraska and the Iowa border. This will spread the snow further north into the Dakotas and start setting the stage for a heavy snow band to form over central South Dakota into the northeast part of South Dakota. The warmer side of the storm will also begin pushing into the Dallas area and bring more moisture to the area, increasing the chances for heavy rainfall and even some isolated severe storms. Once the storm system travels towards the Gulf of Mexico, more warm air will be pushed into the system. This, along with the upper level jet, will set the stage on Sunday night into Monday for severe weather over the lower Mississippi River Valley.

Featured Image Credit: Eugenio Marongiu / Shutterstock

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