January 8, 2013
The Storm Report Blog For January 8, 2013
Left Map Analysis: The latest satellite image from the evening of the 7th shows our upper level low developing and pushing across the far western part of Mexico. There is also becoming a better organized surface feature establishing itself towards the east of the upper level low. Tonight we can see spinning from Southern Texas into Northeastern Texas associated with this feature. Expect to see the rainfall start to increase in coverage through the evening.
Right Map Analysis: The right map shows us the latest analysis and projected track of our low pressure that is pushing out of Mexico in the next 24hrs and then will make its way northeastward and then northward by the end of the period. The yellow arrows represent our outlook forecast track of where the storm system should track and if you look not too much different from last night, we have however extended the outlook to push it into Oklahoma and Kansas on the 10th. The green represents our rainfall forecast track for the next couple of days as you see its now pushing into Oklahoma and Kansas and a tad bit further north and this will all occur on the 10th. The red is still are projected path for the heaviest rainfall along with the chance of seeing strong and possibly severe thunderstorms in this region. As of the 10th we will also be watching an area of light snow begin to develop out ahead of the warm front as it approaches the Missouri region.
Looking at the potential impacts of this storm for certain cities and how they will be impacted. (These conditions are for January 9-10).
Brownsville, Texas: Thunderstorms and heavy rain will start the 9th with the chance of seeing total rainfall during this time period around 0.40-0.70in. Winds will be Southeasterly 12-17mph with higher gust and temps will be mild in the 68-72F range.| Rain will move out by the evening of the 9th brining cloudy skies to the area along with winds from the Northeast 5-10mph and temps will slightly drop to around 66-70F.| By the morning of the 10th the region will see partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds along with temps in the 58-62F range.|
Houston, Texas: Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will start the day off with rainfall amounts reaching to near 0.75-1.25in during the time period, winds will be breezy from the Southeast around 12-17mph along with higher gust as temps will be in the 68-72F range during this time.| The evening of the 9th rainfall will diminish slowly leaving only about another 0.05-0.15in total. Winds will become Southwesterly 10-15mph along with temps in the 60-64F range.| By the morning of the 10th the region will see partly cloudy skies along with westerly winds near 7mph and cooler temps in the 55-59F range.|
Dallas, Texas: Thunderstorms and rain will start the 9th off with the potential of seeing total accumulations around 0.8-1.2in during this time. Winds will be strong from the Northeast around 15-20mph along with temps being in the 55-59F range.| The evening of the 9th will still have moderate rain in the region with the chance of seeing an additional accumulations of 0.25-0.50inches. Winds will become Northeast around 8-13mph along with temps in the 58-62F range.| The morning of the 10th everything will begin to clear out of the region with the winds shifting to the Southwest around 10-15mph and temps will cool to around 50-54F.|
Little Rock, Arkansas: The period will start with some light rain moving into the region with accumulations expected to be around 0.15-0.25in. The winds will be from the Northeast around 8-13mph along with temps in the 50-54F range.| Rain will increase by the evening of the 9th and become moderate with accumulations around 0.4-0.8in total. Winds will be brisk from the Northeast around 10-15mph along with temps in the 52-56F range.| The morning of the 10th the rain will become light again with accumulations around 0.05-0.15in. The winds will become very strong out of the Southwest around 15-20mph with higher gust allowing the temps to warm up nicely to around 58-62F.|
Kansas City, Missouri: The period will start partly cloudy as the storm will still be south of the metro area, winds will be from the Northwest around 5-10mph and temps will be in the 35-39F range along with a wind chill value near 30F.| By the night of the 9th conditions will be cloudy with moderate easterly winds around 10-15mph and cold temps near 37-41F and wind chill values near 32F.| The morning of the 10th things will change as the heavy rain begins to move into the area expect to see around 0.25-0.50 in during this time period. Temps will be in the 37-41F range along with wind chill values near 29F and winds from the Southwest at 15-20mph.|
St. Louis, Missouri: The period on the 9th will begin with partly cloudy skies and light winds from the Northwest around 2-7mph and temps will be in the 38-42F range which will bring a wind chill to the region near 36F.| By the evening of the 9th the skies will become mostly cloudy along with Northeast winds at 5-10mph as the temps will hold steady around 38-42F again creating a wind chill value near 35F.| The morning of the 10th will become difficult in the region as winds will increase from the East around 15-20mph along with heavy rain and periods of snowfall as the rain may accumulate to around 0.4-0.8in while the snowfall should be around a trace. Temps will fall to the 36-40F range during this time and the wind chill value will be near 31F.
Past 24hr Storm Summary: The storm system over the past 24hrs gradually shifted out of the Baja and moved into Western Mexico where it is this evening. The storm also began to intensify as now the upper level feature has started to develop a surface low which will be the primary concern of the weather pattern over the next few days.
24hr Storm Impacts: The next 24hrs we will watch the storm start to bring widespread rainfall into Texas and Western Louisiana, however the severe weather should remain low during this time period as there will not be enough dynamics in place yet. Rainfall will have the potential to become very heavy as many places could see over 1inch just in the next 24hrs not to include what they will see over the next few days from this system. Winter weather will remain low for the next 24hrs, however after that expect to see this storm system to also develop a winter side to it as it pushes out of the gulf region and into the colder Northern Plains.
Featured Image Credit: Photos.com