Tropical Storm Rusty
February 27, 2013

Tropical Storm Rusty

Left Map Analysis: The satellite image from this evening over Northwest Australia shows a defined eye around Tropical Cyclone Rusty. The outflow from Rusty extends well inland towards the central part of Australia. Rusty will be making landfall in the Northwest part of Australia as a CAT 1 storm likely to hit very close to the Port Hedland area.

Right Map Analysis: Looking at the latest information, we can see Tropical Cyclone Rusty is just to the northwest of the Port Hedland area and will be making landfall in the region. However, if we take a look at the red line that outlines part of the Australian Coast, we can see the region that will be impacted with high seas and very strong winds along with storm surge and very heavy rainfall amounts.

Tropical Storm Rusty

Image Credit: Joshua Kelly

Looking at the potential impact of this storm for certain cities and how they will be affected. (These conditions are for February 25-26).

Broome, AUS: The next 12hrs will see temperatures in the 83-87F range. Along with that, there will be areas of heavy rainfall associated with Rusty; amounts will be around 1-2inches during this time period as winds will be Northeast 30-40mph with gust near 50mph. 18-24hr outlook will bring in heavier rainfall to the region, with totals around 2-4inches during this time.  Also, expect to see winds coming from the Northeast at 30-40mph with gusts near 50mph as temps remain in the 83-87F range for the same time period. Looking at the 24-36hr outlook, the region will see the rainfall amounts decrease to around 0.5-1.0 inches of rain; then winds will shift to the Northwest 20-30mph with gust near 40mph. Temperatures will begin to warm back up to the 84-88F range behind the storm.

Port Hedland, AUS: The winds and rain are here to stay for the next 36hrs, at least. The storm is going to make its landfall very close to this region. The next 12hrs will have winds from the Southeast 60-70mph with gust as high as 90mph. Rainfall will be heavy, with amounts around 2-4inches during this time period along with the storm surge will be pushing its way onshore. Temperatures for this time period will be around 78-82F. The 18-24hr outlook is very dangerous with winds from the Southeast at 70-80mph with gusts as high as 95mph. These types of winds will create large areas of destruction and have a large impact on the area in terms of damage. Rainfall will also intensify with amounts around 9-13inches during this time period, which will lead to very serious flooding conditions in the area.  Temperatures during this time will be in the 80-84F range.  During the 24-36hr outlook, the winds will begin to shift as the storm moves onshore; they will be Northwest at s50-60mph with gusts around 70mph.  This will create dangerous conditions in the area. Rainfall amounts will be very heavy with totals around 8-10 additional inches. Temperatures for this time period will maintain the 80-84F range.

Learmonth, AUS: Conditions are going to go downhill over the next 12hrs, with winds increasing from the Southeast around 40-50mph and gust as high as 70mph. Rainfall will become heavy as well with total amounts during this window around 2-4inches. Temperatures will be cooler around 77-81F. The 18-24hr outlook shows winds increasing to around 45-55mph with higher gusts near 75mph from the Southeast along with that will be very heavy rains around 6-9inches possible during this time and temps will warm slightly to around 80-84F. The 24-36hr outlook for the region has the winds switching to the Northwest 40-50mph with gust near 60mph. Rainfall will remain heavy with an additional 5-8inches possible. Temperatures will stay in the 80-84F range.

Past 24hr Storm Summary:  The last 24hrs have seen Tropical Cyclone Rusty gain intensity as it has been sitting over the warm open waters, creating a large area of storm surge already that had been pushing onshore near the Northwest side of Australia along with that rainfall had also pushed into the region. The winds started picking up along the coastline as many places started to see winds in the 35-50mph range as of the past 24hrs.

24hr Storm Impacts:  The next 24hrs are going to be a crucial time for the Northwestern parts of Australia, including the city of Port Hedland where the center is going to be the closest when it makes landfall. This will bring very strong winds in excess of 50mph to this part of the area and a very high storm surge, which could lead to flooding and structural damage around the area.

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