July 8, 2013
Tropical Weather Outlook For July 7 – August 7
The United States can roughly be broken down into three zones when it comes to tropical activity and how it impacts us.
Zone 1 will cover the Gulf of Mexico from southeast Texas all the way to the tip of Florida, near Miami. Zone 2 will be all of eastern Florida northward into the North Carolina region. Zone 3 is from North Carolina northward to Maine.
Here is an outlook for the next 30 days as to what type of tropical activity we might see.
Starting with Zone 1, there is a low potential of seeing a tropical system making landfall between the tip of Texas and just south of Houston, while from Houston to just south of New Orleans would have a moderate potential of seeing a land falling tropical system. Then moving from southeast Louisiana, across Mississippi, and into the panhandle of Florida, there will also be a low potential of seeing a tropical system making landfall in the region. The remainder of Zone 1 from Northern Florida to the tip of South Florida will have a moderate potential of seeing a land falling tropical system during this time frame. The reason zone 1 will be rated with a few moderate potentials is that during the month of July, especially this year, the sub-tropical high pressure center is very strong, forcing the storm tracks into the Gulf and away from the east coast at present time.
Zone 2 will have a moderate potential from eastern Florida to near Jacksonville, Florida of seeing a tropical system. Then from Jacksonville Florida to southeast South Carolina, there will be a low potential of seeing a tropical system making landfall. There will be a moderate potential of seeing a tropical system making landfall from northeast South Carolina through North Carolina. Zone 2 may start to see some tropical impacts towards the end of the 30day outlook if the sub-tropical ridge breaks down enough to allow for the re-curve of the storm systems.
Zone 3 will see no tropical impacts for the next 30days, from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. This area should remain under the sub-tropical high pressure area, forcing the storms to develop and stay to the south of this region during this time period.
Zone 1 and 2 stand the best chances for seeing a tropical system impact them over the next 30 days, while Zone 3 should remain out of harm’s way for this time period.
The big factors that will play into the forecast for the next 30 days include the sub-tropical ridge that is presently located just off the east coast. This will determine when the storms can start their re-curve towards the north. The second thing that will play into impact this month will be the upper level pattern over the United States. If we continue to see the trough settle in over a good portion of the southeast and Gulf Coast, this could force the tropics to remain tranquil in this region, as well. The troughs will provide shear to the storm, not allowing it to develop fully. The third impact player will be more for the end of the 30day period and that is the dust over western Africa; the longer that dust stays present, the longer it will take for storms to fully develop as they will absorb the dust and force the storms to remain weaker.
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