May 12, 2013
What If We See Hurricanes Forming In The Next Few Weeks?
In today’s edition of “What If,” we are going to look at an interesting location. This happens to be the left image with the yellow circle. As you can see, it is located just to the east of Central America. So my question to you is, “What if” this formed into a tropical system? First, is that possible in May? The answer to that question is a simple yes; this region is favorable for May development. But would there be a chance for something to form down there in May this year? This question is a little bit trickier; however, there is some development and a small circulation that is looking like it could setup over the tip of South America. So, when would this type of event take place? Right now, it is still about 2 weeks away, which is why I have classified it as a “What If” scenario.
Looking at the latest indications, this “What If” scenario could start taking place by around May 20th. If this does happen, the ocean waters in this region are plenty warm to support development. The winds in this region are going to also be low in shear, which is good for development as well.
So, “What If” this storm does develop? Where would it go? Once again, it is too early to tell; but looking at the right hand image, I have provided a quick thought into what it could do based on the atmospheric conditions during that time period. If it were to develop in that location just north of South America, the light winds would push it slightly northwestward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. But after a couple days on that course, it could rapidly intensify due to the warm waters and lack of shear and then it could turn more to the north.
So “What if”, this takes place? When will the track become consistent? Probably not until about 8 days out; then there will still be some uncertainty with the storm.
Remember before you start to panic about this, remember this is a big “What If” right now, and is just a good topic for discussion to see what comes of this, if anything. The reason that it is good for discussion is that if it does take place you won’t be as surprised, especially if you are reading this “What If”.
It is always interesting to watch these “What If” events unfold as there is a great chance for learning along the way. So, until the next “What If,” just remember to turn into our Big Story Weather over the coming days as we will start talking more about this if it becomes a real case.
Featured Image Credit: photobank.kiev.ua / Shutterstock